On Friday, May 2nd, a key meeting was scheduled to take place in Rome between Iran and the E3: France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Although the talks were cancelled for unknown reasons, European leaders will inevitably have to sit down with Iran. In October 2025, the UN resolution endorsing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) will expire. Under this agreement—also known as the Iran Deal—Iran agreed in 2015 to limit its nuclear activities in exchange for the easing of Western sanctions.
France has warned Iran, which is suspected of having expanded its nuclear capabilities nonetheless, that it will not hesitate to reimpose lifted sanctions. This language sounds firm, but above all reveals a lack of understanding of the shifting alliances in the Middle East. In a geopolitical development that until recently seemed unrealistic, former archrivals Iran and Saudi Arabia are now moving closer. This diplomatic thaw—partly brokered by China—shows that the regional power dynamics are being reshuffled. In this new reality, threatening with a sanctions regime will no longer have the desired effect, and the EU will need to develop a different strategy.
From Rivalry to Diplomacy
Saudi Arabia, which presents itself as the leader of the Sunni world, has viewed Shiite Iran as a threat to its regional dominance ever since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. The two regional powers have since waged their rivalry through proxy wars—conflicts in which they support affiliated armed groups, such as in Yemen—in an effort to expand their spheres of influence in the Middle East.
However, the rivalry goes beyond sectarian differences and is also driven by opposing positions on Israel. The 2020 Abraham Accords—an American diplomatic initiative—sought to normalize relations between Israel and several Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia. One of the key aims of these negotiations was to create a joint power bloc against Iran, which is vehemently opposed to Israel and supports anti-Israel groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah.
War in Gaza
Since March of this year, however, Saudi Arabia appears to have abandoned the idea of normalizing relations with Israel. The reason for this reversal lies in the resumption of Israeli bombardments on Gaza after a short ceasefire. Saudi Arabia has long positioned itself as a champion of an independent Palestinian state, but had previously refrained from openly condemning the destruction of Gaza. After the ceasefire was broken, Netanyahu proposed relocating the Palestinian population to Saudi territory. This crossed a line for the Saudis and drew fierce criticism from Saudi state media.
Shifting Alliances
Rather than normalizing ties with Israel, Saudi Arabia is now opting for rapprochement with Iran, as evidenced by high-level meetings that took place in April. Earlier signs of a diplomatic thaw had already emerged: in 2021, talks were held in Iraq, and in 2023, diplomatic relations—severed in 2016—were restored with Chinese mediation. Both countries see economic and strategic benefits in an improved relationship. Regional stability is a crucial condition for Saudi Arabia to achieve its Vision 2030 ambitions. At the same time, relations with Saudi Arabia offer Iran a chance to recover its economy, which has been severely weakened by Western sanctions. Moreover, Iran is compelled to seek new alliances now that traditional partners like Hamas and the former Assad regime are weakened or no longer reliable.
EU Sanctions in a New Context
Due in part to European sanctions, Iran has been economically isolated for some time. Nevertheless, growing bilateral trade with Saudi Arabia is increasingly compensating for economic setbacks—the trade volume in 2023 was already four times higher than in 2022. Additionally, Saudi state-owned companies have the capacity to make massive investments in Iran’s gas and oil sectors. The acceleration of the normalization process, spurred by the war in Gaza, may further strengthen economic cooperation between the two parties.
The geopolitical earthquake brought about by a Saudi-Iranian alliance undermines the effectiveness of a potential new EU sanctions regime. Threats of punitive measures will carry less and less weight in Tehran. If the EU truly wants to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power, it must be willing to look beyond sanctions alone.
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